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Back to the Future: Tariffs and the Return of Old Ideas

Peter McNally, CFA on CAP-EX, trade, energy and what companies aren’t doing

In this episode, Tom Levine speaks with Peter McNally, CFA of Third Bridge about what companies are doing—and not doing—as tariffs return, energy demand shifts, and old technologies re-emerge.

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McNally explains that despite political rhetoric, most companies are not rewiring their supply chains or committing to bold capital expenditures. Instead, they're absorbing the cost of tariffs—“from 15% margin to 14%”—and waiting. He describes how some reshoring announcements are simply “window dressing,” and why long-term capital remains cautious in an environment of policy uncertainty.

The conversation spans 27 years of market cycles, from the rise of LNG and shale to nuclear restarts, AI data center power demand, and how molten salt reactors are being dusted off as potential solutions. McNally offers a firsthand view into how institutions are evaluating risk—not based on headlines, but based on who’s spending real capital and who isn’t.

“We’re all going to have to be students again,” he says, as the industrial logic of the past returns to shape the next phase of global markets.

About Peter McNally, CFA, Third Bridge

Pete has decades of experience in investment research and extensive buy-side experience as analyst and portfolio manager. He has a well developed network of C-level executives, policymakers, investors, consultants, and professional research analysts, he leads a team covering all aspects of IME (industrials, materials, and energy) across public and private, equity and credit, and commodity markets.

From his LinkedIn Profile:

How can we work together?
Do you have experience and something to say on natural resource industries, ESG, and industrials anywhere in the world? My team at Third Bridge Forum would love to talk. We reach thousands of investor clients around the globe every month through our hour-long, moderated interviews. No topic is too big or small, and we continue to grow.

Please get in touch.
Email: peter.mcnally@thirdbridge.com and ppmcnallyjr@gmail.com
Cell: +1 212 380 3303


Native Angelino With Tom Levine

“From a vantage point within sight of the Hollywood Sign, seated beneath a palm tree, Tom Levine takes you on a twisted, exploratory tour of popular thought, the upside-down theories of classical economics, politics, and other strange things.

Tom talks all things Los Angeles, bright new ideas, and complex topics of interest to creative thinkers and discerning skeptics.

L.A. locals state with pride, "You can surf in the morning and ski in the afternoon." Well, if you get a really early start, it's true. Sometimes.

Los Angeles is the City of the Angels, and Tom Levine is a Native Angelino.

ANALYSIS BY

Tom Levine | Native Angelino Real Estate | Los Angeles

25+ years in capital markets. USC Marshall School of Business. Claremont Colleges. London School of Economics. California real estate broker since 2017. Writing on commission compression, brokerage economics, and market structure since 2022.

Before Sitzer Burnett. Before Compass Anywhere. Before the portal wars reached their current scale. The analysis here is independent. No portal agreements. No platform incentives.
Native Angelino with Tom Levine | YouTube

INDEPENDENT. FOUNDER LED. CLIENT FOCUSED. WE KNOW LOS ANGELES

Native Angelino Real Estate does not participate in portal incentive structures. No Compass alliance. No Zillow preferred agent program. No internal matching incentives. No debt service obligations that require volume at the expense of judgment. The only alignment here is with the client.

Tom Levine | Broker | CADRE 02052698
Los Angeles | Beverly Hills, CA 90209
(213) 915 6161 | LinkedIn

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